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Thread: Introduction Trip #3 Watagan s

  1. #21
    Club Member Dru's Avatar
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    OK let's take a look at the BOM. Firstly the big wet coming is dragged from Vic up through the Central Tablelands -our trip is inside of Newcastle, we are just on the edge of it.

    MetEye is the better of the long term BOM forecasts for our purposes: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
    Type in "Mandalong" which is pretty much the closest town to our trip.

    Wed 60% chance of rain; 0-2mm
    Th 30% of rain; 0-0.4mm
    Fri 50% chance of rain; 0-4 mm
    Sat 95% chance, 5 to 10mm.

    Statistically that is something less than 2mm-4mm of rain during the week prior to the trip - almost enough to dampen the dust.

    Saturday is raining, but if you look through the hour by hour forecast, it is 25% to 50% in each time band with it looking more likely in the middle of the day and to the north of our trip.
    Note that the long term forecast takes a jump to better accuracy at -3 days (they use local datapaks at that stage). For now the weather looks fine but we will know better from Thursday. We will check wind and storms as we get closer (I don't like to have to deal with too many fallen trees, so wind tends to be more important than rain.) And also any zealous Park response with track closures.

    You'll be washing off the mud on Sunday, think about boots, waterproof jacket and umbrellas for the trip, but we are looking good to go. If it is greasy we will avoid Creek Road, but the rest of the trip should be fine.

    Stay in touch! We are on weather watch!

  2. #22
    Club Member Dru's Avatar
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    It is all good. BOM/Meteye is now showing Saturday as 80% chance of rain - 0-4mm. So dont forget a wet weather coat.

    We WILL check the radar on Saturday - but the trip is uneffected. Park closures are also not concerning.

    See you all at the meet up point!

    Cheers

    Dru'n'Kerry

  3. #23

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    Sounds Good.

    Looking forward to meeting you all.

    Cheers
    Ben

  4. #24
    Club Member Dru's Avatar
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    OK, final condition check.

    Generally things look good in the morning, but the chance of rain increases through the day and a total of 10mm to 20mm is expected. Parks have no specific additional closure notes other than don't take a 2wd.

    Caution will guide us during the day, but we'll see everyone there at the meet up point.

    Dru'n'Kerry

  5. #25

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    Another great trip! Thanks again Kerry & Dru!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  6. #26
    Club Member Dru's Avatar
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    Thanks Brenton. I think that version of the trip is probably the most spot on for the published grade. We remembered a couple of trails we hadnt been on for a while and they fitted nicely.

    Nice that the rain (almost) held off until we were aired up.





    Dru'n'Kerry

  7. #27

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    Great trip guys, thanks to all for a great day


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  8. #28

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    Nice trip, thank you everyone! And the rain started just at the right moment to wash the dirt off on the way home, perfect timing there as well

  9. #29

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    Many thanks for the day.

    I really enjoyed myself and learnt some things along the way.

  10. #30

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    Great trip guys! Thanks again!

    Afiq & Sammie

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